3  Exploratory Data Analysis

Published

January 2, 2024

Code 
library(gt)
library(knitr)
library(kableExtra)

World Development Indicators

Comparing Two EU Candidates: Ukraine and Turkey

Introduction:

In this Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), we focused on the years 2018 to 2022, we conducted a comparative analysis between two countries, Ukraine and Turkey, both aspiring to become candidates for the European Union. Utilizing key indicators such as total population, GDP per capita, age dependency ratio, inflation, unemployment rate, and gender-specific labor force participation rates, we aimed to evaluate and contrast the socio-economic landscapes of these nations. The data collected from the World Bank allows us to gain insights into the demographic structure, economic performance, and labor dynamics, providing a comprehensive overview of the key factors influencing their candidacy for EU membership. This analysis will contribute to a deeper understanding of the current state and potential trajectories of Ukraine and Turkey in their pursuit of EU accession.

Description of Selected Indicators:

Total Population:

  • Total population is the sum of all residents regardless of age.

GDP per Capita:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita represents the average economic output per person.

Age Dependency Ratio:

  • The age dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents (those aged 0-14 and 65+) to the working-age population (15-64).

Inflation, Consumer Prices (CPI) Annual Growth Rate:

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. This indicator represents the annual growth rate of CPI.

Unemployment, Total (% of Labor Force):

  • Total unemployment is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.

Labor Force Participation Rate, Female (% of Female Population Ages 15+):

  • The labor force participation rate for females represents the percentage of the female population ages 15 and older that is economically active.

Labor Force Participation Rate, Male (% of Male Population Ages 15+):

  • The labor force participation rate for males represents the percentage of the male population ages 15 and older that is economically active.

Load Libraries and Packages

The libraries used in our analysis are given below:

The data set used in our analysis is given below:

Code 
world_bank_data <- readRDS("world_bank_data.rds")

options(max.print = 15)

kable(world_bank_data, "html") %>% kable_styling()
Country Year Population GdpPerCapita AgeDependancyRatio Inflation UnemploymentRate FemaleLaborRate MaleLaborRate
European Union 2018 447001100 35751.573 54.66621 1.7386086 7.253803 51.06276 63.84818
European Union 2019 447367191 35079.534 55.29177 1.6305226 6.679810 51.26601 63.91365
European Union 2020 447692315 34356.575 55.86259 0.4764989 7.054819 50.50284 63.01832
European Union 2021 447178112 38721.763 56.34923 2.5545070 7.000430 51.13162 63.14634
European Union 2022 447370510 37432.560 56.57327 8.8336989 6.098751 51.88009 63.83574
Turkiye 2018 81407204 9568.836 46.30621 16.3324639 10.890000 34.03700 72.43400
Turkiye 2019 82579440 9215.441 46.74186 15.1768216 13.670000 34.21500 71.76100
Turkiye 2020 83384680 8638.739 46.82812 12.2789574 13.110000 30.76700 67.99800
Turkiye 2021 84147318 9743.213 46.75508 19.5964927 11.980000 32.76200 70.13500
Turkiye 2022 84979913 10674.504 46.77459 72.3088360 10.030000 34.16700 71.11600
Ukraine 2018 44622518 3096.562 47.21927 10.9518559 8.800000 49.54200 64.46000
Ukraine 2019 44386203 3661.458 47.75787 7.8867175 8.190000 49.26000 64.81700
Ukraine 2020 44132049 3751.737 48.18610 2.7324921 9.480000 48.15100 63.44800
Ukraine 2021 43822901 4827.846 48.41627 9.3631392 9.830000 47.79100 62.89700
Ukraine 2022 38000000 4533.976 52.05497 20.1836367 NA NA NA

Key Findings:

Total Population Comparison:

While the European Union’s population remains stable, Turkey demonstrates a steady increase, and Ukraine experiences fluctuations with a notable decline in 2022.

Code 
library(ggplot2)
library(scales)
library(dplyr)
Code 
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = factor(Year), y = Population / 1e6, fill = Country)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "dodge", alpha = 0.7) +
  geom_text(aes(label = scales::label_number_si(accuracy = 1)(Population)), 
            position = position_dodge(width = 0.9), 
            vjust = -0.5, 
            size = 3) +
  labs(title = "Total Population Comparison",
       x = "Year",
       y = "Population (Million)",
       fill = "Country") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::label_number_si(accuracy = 1)) + 
  theme_minimal()

GDP per Capita Comparison:

The GDP per Capita Comparison graph reveals unique economic trajectories for each country or region. The data shows that the European Union, comprising 27 member countries, consistently maintains the highest GDP per capita among the three regions.

In 2018, the European Union’s GDP per capita stood at approximately $35,700. It experienced a slight downturn in 2019 and 2020, but rebounded robustly in 2021 to nearly $38,700, and continues to perform strongly in 2022 at about $37,400.

In contrast, Ukraine’s GDP per capita hovers around $5K, while Turkiye’s stands near $10K, indicating that Turkiye’s GDP per capita is double that of Ukraine’s. Moreover, Turkiye’s population is 1.5 times larger than Ukraine’s, affirming its larger economic scale.

Notably, the European Union’s GDP per capita is over four times that of Turkiye and approximately twelve times that of Ukraine, highlighting the economic strength of the European Union. However, it is crucial to consider the Union’s significantly larger population and diverse economies, which contribute to this superior statistical performance.

Code 
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year, y = GdpPerCapita, fill = Country)) +
  geom_bar(stat = "identity", position = "dodge",alpha = 0.7) +
  geom_text(aes(label = scales::label_number_si(accuracy = 1)(GdpPerCapita)), 
            position = position_dodge(width = 0.9), 
            vjust = -0.5, 
            size = 3) +
  labs(
    title = "GDP per Capita Comparison (USD)",
    x = "Year",
    y = "GDP per Capita (USD)",
    fill = "Country"
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::label_number_si(accuracy = 1)) +  
  theme_minimal()

Age Dependency Ratio Comparison:

The Age Dependency Ratio in the European Union increased slightly, Turkey’s ratio remains quite stable. Ukraine experienced a dramatic increase in 2022, suggesting changes in the demographic structure.

Code 
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year, y = AgeDependancyRatio, color = Country, group = Country)) +
  geom_line() +
  geom_text(aes(label = paste0(scales::comma(round(AgeDependancyRatio), big.mark = ","), "%")), 
            position = position_dodge(width = 0.9), 
            vjust = -0.5, 
            size = 3) +
  labs(
    title = "Age Dependency Ratio Comparison",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Age Dependency Ratio (%)",
    color = "Country"
  ) + 
  theme_minimal() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format(scale = 1), limits = c(40, 60), breaks = seq(40, 60, by = 10))

Inflation Rate Comparison:

The graph depicts the inflation rates for three different countries/regions over the years 2018 to 2022: European Union, Turkey, and Ukraine.

  • The European Union generally had lower inflation rates compared to Turkey and Ukraine, with some fluctuations.

  • Turkey experienced relatively higher and more volatile inflation rates, reaching a peak in 2022.

  • Ukraine, in contrast, had a decreasing trend in inflation.

  • All of them has increasing trend after 2020 and reaching the highest rate in 2022.

Code 
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year, y = Inflation, color = Country, group = Country)) +
  geom_line() +
   geom_text(aes(label = scales::comma(Inflation, big.mark = ",")), 
            position = position_dodge(width = 0.9), 
            vjust = -0.5, 
            size = 3) +  # Barların üstüne değerleri yazmak için
  labs(
    title = "Inflation Rate Comparison",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Inflation Rate",
    color = "Country"
  ) +
  theme_minimal()

Inflation and Unemployment Rate Comparison:

  • The European Union generally experienced moderate inflation and unemployment rates.

  • Turkey faced higher inflation rates and initially high but decreasing unemployment rates.

  • Ukraine showed more significant fluctuations in both inflation and unemployment rates, with a notable increase in inflation in 2021. It’s important to note that the provided data has missing values (NA), especially in the case of Ukraine’s unemployment rate for 2022.

Code 
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year, y = UnemploymentRate, color = Country, size=Inflation)) +
  geom_point() +
  labs(title = " Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate Comparison",
       x = "Year",
       y = "UnemploymentRate",
       color = "Country") +
  theme_minimal()

Inflation and GDP Per Capita Comparison:

  • The European Union maintained relatively low inflation (0.48% to 2.55%) but saw a modest decline in GDP per capita.

  • Turkey experienced higher inflation, peaking at 72.31% in 2022, and a fluctuating GDP per capita.

  • Ukraine had varying inflation rates, notably increasing in 2022 (20.18%), with GDP per capita showing fluctuations. These trends highlight economic variations and challenges across the regions during the specified period.

Code 
# Veriyi düzenle
world_bank_data <- world_bank_data %>%
  filter(!is.na(Inflation))  # NA değerleri filtrele

ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year, group = Country)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = GdpPerCapita, color = Country, linetype = "GdpPerCapita"), size = 1.2) +
  geom_line(aes(y = Inflation * 100, color = Country, linetype = "Inflation"), size = 1.2) +
  

  scale_linetype_manual(values = c("GdpPerCapita" = "solid", "Inflation" = "dotted")) +
  
  labs(title = "Inflation and Gdp Per Capita (USD) Comparison",
       x = "Year", 
       y = "GdpPerCapita",
       color = "Country",
       linetype = "Indicator") +
  
  scale_y_continuous(sec.axis = sec_axis(~./100, name = "Inflation")) +
  
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",   
        legend.title = element_blank(),
        legend.box = "horizontal",  
        legend.margin = margin(t = 0, r = 0, b = 0, l = 0),  
        plot.title = element_text(size = 12), 
        axis.text = element_text(size = 10),  
        legend.text = element_text(size = 10))

Unemployment Rate Comparison:

Unemployment rates varied across the years for the European Union, Turkey, and Ukraine.

  • The European Union maintained relatively lower unemployment rates, ranging from 6.10% in 2022 to 7.25% in 2018.

  • Turkey saw a decline from 10.89% in 2018 to 10.03% in 2022.

  • Ukraine experienced fluctuations, notably increasing from 8.19% in 2019 to 20.18% in 2021.

  • Overall, the European Union consistently had lower unemployment rates compared to Turkey and Ukraine during the specified years.

Code 
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year, y = UnemploymentRate, color = Country)) +
  geom_line() +
  geom_text(aes(label = paste0(scales::comma(round(UnemploymentRate,2), big.mark = ","), "%")), 
            position = position_dodge(width = 0.9), 
            vjust = -0.5, 
            size = 3) +
  labs(
    title = "Unemployment Rate Comparison",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Unemployment Rate",
    color = "Country"
  ) +
  theme_minimal()

Male and Female Labor Force Participation Rate Comparison:

The European Union consistently leads in both male and female labor force participation rates, while Turkey sees a notable gender gap with higher male participation. Ukraine shows a more balanced but lower overall participation compared to the EU.

Code 
# ggplot2 ile grafik çizimi
  ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = MaleLaborRate, color = Country), na.rm = TRUE) +
 
  labs(title = "Male Labor Rate",
       x = "Year",
       y = "Male Labor Rate") +
  theme_minimal() +
  facet_grid(. ~ Country) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format(scale = 1)) +
  theme(legend.position="bottom",
        panel.spacing.x = unit(1, "lines"))

Code 
# ggplot2 ile diğer grafik çizimi
ggplot(world_bank_data, aes(x = Year)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = FemaleLaborRate, color = Country), na.rm = TRUE) +
  labs(title = "Female Labor Rate",
       x = "Year",
       y = "Female Labor Rate") +
  theme_minimal() +
  facet_grid(. ~ Country) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format(scale = 1)) +
  theme(legend.position="bottom",
        panel.spacing.x = unit(1, "lines"))

Results:

The above analysis provides a snapshot of key socio-economic indicators for the European Union (EU), Turkey, and Ukraine over the years 2018 to 2022. In the EU, there is a gradual decrease in population alongside a decline in GDP per capita. Age dependency ratios are consistently high, indicating an aging population, while inflation and unemployment rates fluctuate. Female and male labor rates remain relatively stable.

For Turkey, the population shows a slight increase, but there is a noticeable drop in GDP per capita. Age dependency ratios and inflation rates vary, with a significant spike in 2022. Unemployment rates decrease over the period, and female and male labor rates exhibit moderate fluctuations.

In the case of Ukraine, the population decreases notably from 2018 to 2022, possibly due to recent geopolitical events. GDP per capita follows an upward trend, and age dependency ratios remain relatively stable. Inflation rates fluctuate, while unemployment rates decrease. It’s worth noting that data for 2022 is incomplete for Ukraine. Overall, these trends suggest varying economic and demographic dynamics across the three entities over the analyzed period.