class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Turkish Natural Gas Market ### Division Bell ### MEF UNIVERSITY ### 2021/12/15 --- # Division Bell ## Group Members * **[Emirhan Şahin](https://pjournal.github.io/mef05-liophire/)** * **[Murat Can Taşar](https://pjournal.github.io/mef05-mctasar/)** * **[Nejat Uğur Akın](https://pjournal.github.io/mef05-nejatugurakin/)** * **[Yunus Emre Doğan](https://pjournal.github.io/mef05-yunusemre91/)** --- # Introduction + We used two different datasets which are obtained from EPIAS. + We obtained the Turkish National natural gas market data ranging from 2018 to 2021 from the Energy Transparency Platform. Data contain 1188 rows and 9 variables. Variables are as follows: - Date - Total Trade Volume (TTV)¹ - Gas Reference Price (GRP) ² - Others (Generated from Date variable such as week, month etc.) + We analysed each dataset and combined different outcomes. .footnote[ ^[1] [Dataset 1](https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/dogalgaz/stp/stp-grf.xhtml#) ^[2] [Dataset 2](https://seffaflik.epias.com.tr/transparency/dogalgaz/stp/stp-toplam-islem-hacmi.xhtml) ] --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-2.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Days of 5 Highest GRP</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Date </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Gas_Reference_Price </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> season </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Total_Trade_Volume </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-12-01 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6903.22 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23641605 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4649.00 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2871827 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4649.00 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2783496 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-19 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4649.00 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2532450 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-20 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4649.00 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3079084 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Days of 5 Highest TTV</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Date </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Total_Trade_Volume </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> season </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Gas_Reference_Price </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 40030842 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1206.13 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-13 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 36458635 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1221.79 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33565372 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2927.10 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-14 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33374575 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1217.75 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-09-29 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 33271687 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2820.20 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Days of 5 Lowest GRP</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Date </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Gas_Reference_Price </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> season </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Total_Trade_Volume </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-21 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1204.86 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 31680228 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-18 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1206.13 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 40030842 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-17 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1210.48 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6773738 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-22 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1212.45 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4800860 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-02-20 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1214.45 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Winter </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5332787 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Days of 5 Lowest TTV</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Date </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Total_Trade_Volume </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> season </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Gas_Reference_Price </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2021-11-30 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 176662.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4649.00 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2018-09-24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 298453.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1535.63 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2018-11-11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 343503.2 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1510.00 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2018-09-01 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 378501.0 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Fall </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1650.00 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2019-06-24 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 464941.8 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> Summer </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1491.00 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-2.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Highest GRP</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_GRP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_TTV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6903.220 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23641605 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4621.762 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7587283 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3162.358 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8805574 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2345.915 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6411626 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2187.293 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5154411 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Highest TTV</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_GRP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_TTV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6903.220 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23641605 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1319.651 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14136686 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1465.057 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11626111 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1580.432 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10214102 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1341.563 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9951616 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Lowest GRP</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_GRP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_TTV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1232.091 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8695099 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1298.439 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3709074 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1298.836 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8848702 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1316.072 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4797319 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1319.651 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14136686 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Lowest TTV</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_GRP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_TTV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1512.374 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2693888 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1550.164 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3623744 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1298.439 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3709074 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1576.284 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3839869 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1499.178 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4223918 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Highest Monthly Average Increase in GRP</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_GRP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> change_GRP </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6903.220 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 49.36339 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4621.762 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 46.14921 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3162.358 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 34.80275 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1663.348 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 25.60209 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2072.356 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 13.81544 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Lowest Monthly Average Decrease in GRP</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_GRP </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> change_GRP </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 7 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1298.836 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -11.345735 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1480.222 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -6.340627 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1459.291 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.862138 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1232.091 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -5.109845 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1316.072 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -4.017005 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Highest Monthly Average Increase in TTV</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_TTV </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> change_TTV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 14136686 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 214.4494 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 12 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 23641605 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 211.5951 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2018 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 10214102 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 166.0013 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2021 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 8695099 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 134.4278 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11626111 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 120.9438 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="table table-striped table-hover table-condensed" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"> <caption>Months of 5 Lowest Monthly Average Decrease in TTV</caption> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:right;"> year_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> month_num </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> Monthly_Average_TTV </th> <th style="text-align:right;"> change_TTV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 9 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4495694 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -54.82448 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 11 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 6501211 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -54.01177 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2020 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 4425900 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -46.83009 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 1 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 3623744 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -41.45221 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2019 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 5 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> 2693888 </td> <td style="text-align:right;"> -39.92578 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-2.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/figure-side-1.png" width="40%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/figure-side-2.png" width="40%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/figure-side-3.png" width="40%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/figure-side-4.png" width="40%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-2.png" width="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-2.png" width="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="50%" height="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-2.png" width="50%" height="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="50%" height="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-2.png" width="50%" height="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="50%" height="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-2.png" width="50%" height="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="50%" height="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-2.png" width="50%" height="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="50%" height="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-2.png" width="50%" height="50%" /> --- <img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="50%" height="50%" /><img src="xaringan_sunum_2_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-2.png" width="50%" height="50%" /> --- class: center, middle #Thank you for listening!